Recession transmission model
Observed warnings, possible causal links and the AI restructuring hypothesis. A conceptual explorer, not a calibrated recession forecast.
Economic transmission and warning signals
Red = triggered; grey = none triggered. Each node shows triggered / total assigned indicators. Snapshot: 8 October 2026.
● 3 / 6 triggered
Jobs outside care; labour's share of income; people leaving the workforce.
● 5 / 11 triggered
US debt premium; France borrowing costs; oil; mortgage rates; Japan bond yields.
○ 0 / 5 triggered
Technology stocks, corporate credit and financial stress remain below triggers.
The 28 indicators explicitly listed in the supplied snapshot are assigned across the five nodes (6 + 11 + 5 + 3 + 3). The site reports 29 in total; one is not identifiable from the supplied list and is not assigned here. Grouping is interpretive, particularly the broad financing/costs group, which also includes trade and currency indicators. Arrows are hypothetical, not fitted causal relationships.